Using active contours for automated tracking of UV and EUV solar flare ribbons

Solar flare UV and EUV images show elongated bright ``ribbons'' that move over time. If these ribbons are assumed to locate the footpoints of magnetic field lines reconnecting in the corona then it is clear that studying their evolution can provide an important insight into the reconnection process. We propose an image processing method based on active contours (commonly referred to as ``snakes''), for tracking UV and EUV flare ribbons in images from the transition region and coronal explorer (TRACE). Our method aims to provide an efficient, accurate and automatic tool to aid in the study of flare ribbon evolution in large datasets. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the Sun and solar activity, with a more focussed section on solar flares where the mechanism for the creation of flare ribbons is discussed. We also outline the motivation for solar physics research as a whole and more specifically the motivations behind this project. In this chapter we introduce the TRACE satellite as the source the images used in this project, with a summary of its hardware and the UV and EUV channels which the images used in this project are captured in. Chapter 2 introduces some basics of image processing, such as applying spatial filters. We also look at the different approaches to image segmentation including a more in depth study of active contours. The role of image processing in solar physics and the driving forces for image processing development in solar physics are summarised. The final section of this chapter presents a review of previous methods used for the tracking of solar flare ribbons, including manual, semi-automatic and fully automatic methods. The first part of Chapter 3 details the pre-processing steps applied to the TRACE data before its use by our algorithm. The second part of this chapter introduces our algorithm, with a general overview and detailed discussion of the constituent parts. We also show results from initial tests carried out using a simulated test image, and demonstrate how different parameters of the algorithm can affect its result. Chapter 4 shows results obtained from using our algorithm on TRACE flare images. Some modifications to the algorithm were deemed necessary after applying it to only a small number of flare images, the initial part of this chapter covers the reasons for the modifications and the modifications themselves. The remainder of the chapter presents results of the algorithm applied to a number image sequences from different flares. The results are presented and discussed for each flare separately, with one flare being used as an example of how the parameters of the algorithm can be adapted to suit different flares and images. Chapter 5 discusses to what extent the aim of the project has been achieved and presents a summary of the problems encountered in applying our algorithm to flare images. This chapter finishes with a look at some ideas for future work, both for our algorithm specifically, and for general efforts at flare ribbon tracking

Searching for gravitational waves from pulsars

The work presented here looks at several aspects of searching for continuous gravitational waves from pulsars, often referred to simply as continuous waves or CWs. This begins with an examination of noise in the current generation of laser interferometer gravitational wave detectors in the region below ~100 Hz. This frequency region is of particular interest with regards to CW detection as two prime sources for a first CW detection, the Crab and Vela pulsars, are expected to emit CWs in this frequency range. The Crab pulsar's frequency lies very close to a strong noise line due to the 60 Hz mains electricity in the LIGO detectors. The types of noise generally present in this region are discussed. Also presented are investigations into the noise features present in the LIGO S6 data and the Virgo VSR2 data using a program called Fscan. A particular noise feature present during VSR2 was discovered with the use of Fscan, which I report on and show how it degrades the sensitivity of searches for CWs from the Vela pulsar using this data. I next present search results for CWs from the Vela pulsar using VSR2 and VSR4 data. Whilst these searches did not find any evidence for gravitational waves being present in the data, they were able to place upper limits on the strength of gravitational wave emission from Vela lower than the upper limit set by the pulsars spin-down, making it only the second pulsar for which this milestone has been achieved. The lowest upper limit derived from these searches confines the spin-down energy lost from Vela due to gravitational waves as just 9% of Vela's total spin-down energy. The data from VSR2 and VSR4 are also examined, analysis of hardware injections in these datasets verify the calibration of the data and the search method. Similar results are also presented for a search for CWs from the Crab pulsar, where data from VSR2, VSR3, VSR4, S5 and S6 are combined to produce an upper limit on the gravitational wave (GW) amplitude lower than has been previously possible, representing 0.5% of the energy lost by the pulsar as seen through its spin-down. The same search method is also applied to analyse data for another 110 known pulsars, with five of these being gamma-ray pulsars that have been timed by the Fermi satellite. GWs from the pulsars timed by Fermi are expected at frequencies below 40 Hz, the LIGO detectors are not calibrated below these frequencies but the Virgo detector is. Hence the data used to search for GWs from these pulsars is the Virgo VSR4 data. The other 105 pulsars were analysed using out of date ephemerides obtained for the LIGO S5 run and the data analysed was from the LIGO S6 run, hence the results obtained for these pulsars are presented as an indication of what results can be expected with updated ephemerides only. For these 110 pulsars the spin-down limits were not able to be beaten, although there are a few pulsars for which this may be able to be achieved with an analysis combining all the possible datasets, in particular J1913+1011. The final part of this thesis reports extensions to the search method used for the analyses previously described. The first way in which this search method is extended is the use of a nested sampling algorithm to perform the parameter estimation stage of the analysis which was previously preformed using a MCMC. The nested sampling code also allows for model selection through the computation of the Bayesian evidence, I present results from characterisation tests of this nested sampling search code that demonstrate the equivalence of its results to those from the MCMC and grid based codes. The other extension to the search method looks at a new CW emission mechanism from a neutron star with a pinned superfluid core that is misaligned from the star's principle axes. This emission model predicts CWs at both the stars spin frequency f and twice its spin frequency 2f, providing an extra data channel with which to perform a search when compared to the triaxial rotator model which only emits at 2f. I present the development of a search for the emission from this new model, tests of the algorithm developed using simulated data, and results from a search using actual data from the VSR4 run for CWs from the Crab pulsar. The testing of the search algorithm shows that the posterior for the model is sufficiently complex to inhibit useful parameter estimation, but that the computation of the Bayesian evidence allows one to distinguish between this model and the triaxial rotator given a low SNR signal in the f data channel

Insufficient Reporting of Factors Associated with Exercise Referral Scheme Uptake, Attendance, and Adherence: A Systematic Review of Reviews

Background: Exercise Referral Schemes (ERS) are prescribed programmes aimed at tackling physical inactivity and associated non-communicable disease. Inconsistencies in reporting, recording and delivering ERS make it challenging to identify what works, why, and for whom. Methods: PRISMA guided this narrative review of reviews. Fifteen electronic databases were searched for systematic reviews of ERS. Reviewers applied inclusion criteria and quality assessed via the AMSTAR tool. Data on uptake, attendance and adherence were extracted. Results: Eleven reviews met the inclusion criteria. AMSTAR quality was medium. Definitions of uptake varied within reviews. Uptake ranged from 35%-81%. Groups reported as more likely to take up ERS included, (i) females and (ii) older adults. Attendance was defined variably but ranged from 12%-49%. Men were more likely to attend ERS. Effect of medical diagnosis upon uptake and attendance was inconsistent. Exercises prescribed were unreported and therefore, adherence to exercise prescriptions was unreported. The influence of theoretically-informed approaches on uptake, attendance and adherence was generally lacking, however, self-determination, peer support and supervision support were reported as influencing attendance. Conclusions: There was insufficient reporting across studies about uptake, attendance and adherence. Complex interventions like ERS require consistent definitions, recording and reporting of these key facets, but this is not evident from the existing literature

Effects of diabetes family history and exercise training on the expression of adiponectin and leptin and their receptors

The daughters of patients with diabetes have reduced insulin sensitivity index (ISI) scores compared with women with no family history of diabetes, but their ISI increase more in response to exercise training(1). The present study aimed to determine whether differences between these groups in exercise-induced changes in circulating adiponectin and leptin concentrations and expression of their genes and receptors in subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), could explain differences in the exercise-induced changes in ISI between women with and without a family history of diabetes

Design of optimal Earth pole-sitter transfers using low thrust propulsion

Recent studies have shown the feasibility of an Earth pole-sitter mission using low-thrust propulsion. This mission concept involves a spacecraft following the Earth's polar axis to have a continuous, hemispherical view of one of the Earth's poles. Such a view will enhance future Earth observation and telecommunications for high latitude and polar regions. To assess the accessibility of the pole-sitter orbit, this paper investigates optimum Earth pole-sitter transfers employing low-thrust propulsion. A launch from low Earth orbit (LEO) by a Soyuz Fregat upper stage is assumed after which a solar-electric-propulsion thruster transfers the spacecraft to the pole-sitter orbit. The objective is to minimise the mass in LEO for a given spacecraft mass to be inserted into the pole-sitter orbit. The results are compared with a ballistic transfer that exploits the manifolds winding off the pole-sitter orbit. It is shown that, with respect to the ballistic case, low-thrust propulsion can achieve significant mass savings in excess of 200 kg for a pole-sitter spacecraft of 1000 kg upon insertion. To finally obtain a full low-thrust transfer from LEO up to the pole-sitter orbit, the Fregat launch is replaced by a low-thrust, minimum time spiral through an orbital averaging technique, which provides further mass savings, but at the cost of an increased time of flight

Effect on life expectancy of temporal sequence in a multimorbidity cluster of psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure among 1·7 million individuals in Wales with 20-year follow-up : a retrospective cohort study using linked data

Funding: This work was supported by Health Data Research UK (HDRUK) Measuring and Understanding Multimorbidity using Routine Data in the UK (MUrMuRUK; award numbers HDR-9006 and CFC0110). HDRUK is funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, NIHR (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and Wellcome Trust. This work also was co-funded by the MRC and NIHR (grant number MR/S027750/1). The work was supported by the Administrative Data Research (ADR) Wales programme of work, part of the Economic and Social Research Council (part of UK Research and Innovation) funded ADR UK (grant ES/S007393/1). RKO is supported by a Springboard award (SBF006\1122) funded by the Academy of Medical Sciences, Wellcome Trust, Government Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, British Heart Foundation, and Diabetes UK. SS is part funded by the NIHR Applied Research Collaboration West Midlands, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Gastrointestinal Infections, and the NIHR HPRU in Genomics and Enabling Data.Background To inform targeted public health strategies, it is crucial to understand how coexisting diseases develop over time and their associated impacts on patient outcomes and health-care resources. This study aimed to examine how psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure, in a cluster of physical–mental health multimorbidity, develop and coexist over time, and to assess the associated effects of different temporal sequences of these diseases on life expectancy in Wales. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we used population-scale, individual-level, anonymised, linked, demographic, administrative, and electronic health record data from the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort. We included data on all individuals aged 25 years and older who were living in Wales on Jan 1, 2000 (the start of follow-up), with follow-up continuing until Dec 31, 2019, first break in Welsh residency, or death. Multistate models were applied to these data to model trajectories of disease in multimorbidity and their associated effect on all-cause mortality, accounting for competing risks. Life expectancy was calculated as the restricted mean survival time (bound by the maximum follow-up of 20 years) for each of the transitions from the health states to death. Cox regression models were used to estimate baseline hazards for transitions between health states, adjusted for sex, age, and area-level deprivation (Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation [WIMD] quintile). Findings Our analyses included data for 1 675 585 individuals (811 393 [48·4%] men and 864 192 [51·6%] women) with a median age of 51·0 years (IQR 37·0–65·0) at cohort entry. The order of disease acquisition in cases of multimorbidity had an important and complex association with patient life expectancy. Individuals who developed diabetes, psychosis, and congestive heart failure, in that order (DPC), had reduced life expectancy compared with people who developed the same three conditions in a different order: for a 50-year-old man in the third quintile of the WIMD (on which we based our main analyses to allow comparability), DPC was associated with a loss in life expectancy of 13·23 years (SD 0·80) compared with the general otherwise healthy or otherwise diseased population. Congestive heart failure as a single condition was associated with mean a loss in life expectancy of 12·38 years (0·00), and with a loss of 12·95 years (0·06) when preceded by psychosis and 13·45 years (0·13) when followed by psychosis. Findings were robust in people of older ages, more deprived populations, and women, except that the trajectory of psychosis, congestive heart failure, and diabetes was associated with higher mortality in women than men. Within 5 years of an initial diagnosis of diabetes, the risk of developing psychosis or congestive heart failure, or both, was increased. Interpretation The order in which individuals develop psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure as combinations of conditions can substantially affect life expectancy. Multistate models offer a flexible framework to assess temporal sequences of diseases and allow identification of periods of increased risk of developing subsequent conditions and death.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A comment on the PCAST report:skip the “match”/“non-match” stage

This letter comments on the report “Forensic science in criminal courts: Ensuring scientific validity of feature-comparison methods” recently released by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). The report advocates a procedure for evaluation of forensic evidence that is a two-stage procedure in which the first stage is “match”/“non-match” and the second stage is empirical assessment of sensitivity (correct acceptance) and false alarm (false acceptance) rates. Almost always, quantitative data from feature-comparison methods are continuously-valued and have within-source variability. We explain why a two-stage procedure is not appropriate for this type of data, and recommend use of statistical procedures which are appropriate

DREAMS-START (Dementia RElAted Manual for Sleep; STrAtegies for RelaTives) for people with dementia and sleep disturbances: a single-blind feasibility and acceptability randomized controlled trial

Background: 40% of people with dementia have disturbed sleep but there are currently no known effective treatments. Studies of sleep hygiene and light therapy have not been powered to indicate feasibility and acceptability and have shown 40–50% retention. We tested the feasibility and acceptability of a six-session manualized evidence-based non-pharmacological therapy; Dementia RElAted Manual for Sleep; STrAtegies for RelaTives (DREAMS-START) for sleep disturbance in people with dementia. Methods: We conducted a parallel, two-armed, single-blind randomized trial and randomized 2:1 to intervention: Treatment as Usual. Eligible participants had dementia and sleep disturbances (scoring ≥4 on one Sleep Disorders Inventory item) and a family carer and were recruited from two London memory services and Join Dementia Research. Participants wore an actiwatch for two weeks pre-randomization. Trained, clinically supervised psychology graduates delivered DREAMS-START to carers randomized to intervention; covering Understanding sleep and dementia; Making a plan (incorporating actiwatch information, light exposure using a light box); Daytime activity and routine; Difficult night-time behaviors; Taking care of your own (carer's) sleep; and What works? Strategies for the future. Carers kept their manual, light box, and relaxation recordings post-intervention. Outcome assessment was masked to allocation. The co-primary outcomes were feasibility (≥50% eligible people consenting to the study) and acceptability (≥75% of intervention group attending ≥4 intervention sessions). Results: In total, 63out of 95 (66%; 95% CI: 56–76%) eligible referrals consented between 04/08/2016 and 24/03/2017; 62 (65%; 95% CI: 55–75%) were randomized, and 37 out of 42 (88%; 95% CI: 75–96%) adhered to the intervention. Conclusions: DREAM-START for sleep disorders in dementia is feasible and acceptable

Human neutrophil clearance of bacterial pathogens triggers anti-microbial gamma delta T cell responses in early infection

Human blood Vc9/Vd2 T cells, monocytes and neutrophils share a responsiveness toward inflammatory chemokines and are rapidly recruited to sites of infection. Studying their interaction in vitro and relating these findings to in vivo observations in patients may therefore provide crucial insight into inflammatory events. Our present data demonstrate that Vc9/Vd2 T cells provide potent survival signals resulting in neutrophil activation and the release of the neutrophil chemoattractant CXCL8 (IL-8). In turn, Vc9/Vd2 T cells readily respond to neutrophils harboring phagocytosed bacteria, as evidenced by expression of CD69, interferon (IFN)-c and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-a. This response is dependent on the ability of these bacteria to produce the microbial metabolite (E)-4-hydroxy-3-methyl-but-2-enyl pyrophosphate (HMB-PP), requires cell-cell contact of Vc9/Vd2 T cells with accessory monocytes through lymphocyte function-associated antigen-1 (LFA-1), and results in a TNF-a dependent proliferation of Vc9/Vd2 T cells. The antibiotic fosmidomycin, which targets the HMB-PP biosynthesis pathway, not only has a direct antibacterial effect on most HMB-PP producing bacteria but also possesses rapid anti-inflammatory properties by inhibiting cd T cell responses in vitro. Patients with acute peritoneal-dialysis (PD)-associated bacterial peritonitis – characterized by an excessive influx of neutrophils and monocytes into the peritoneal cavity – show a selective activation of local Vc9/Vd2 T cells by HMB-PP producing but not by HMB-PP deficient bacterial pathogens. The cd T celldriven perpetuation of inflammatory responses during acute peritonitis is associated with elevated peritoneal levels of cd T cells and TNF-a and detrimental clinical outcomes in infections caused by HMB-PP positive microorganisms. Taken together, our findings indicate a direct link between invading pathogens, neutrophils, monocytes and microbe-responsive cd T cells in early infection and suggest novel diagnostic and therapeutic approaches.Martin S. Davey, Chan-Yu Lin, Gareth W. Roberts, Sinéad Heuston, Amanda C. Brown, James A. Chess, Mark A. Toleman, Cormac G.M. Gahan, Colin Hill, Tanya Parish, John D. Williams, Simon J. Davies, David W. Johnson, Nicholas Topley, Bernhard Moser and Matthias Eber